Case Study: Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks

An era rooted from mediocrity and occasional, yet short-lived success

From the Beginning

Trae Young has been a prominent, yet polarizing figure in basketball discourse since his high school days. Playing at Norman North High School in Norman, OK, Young averaged 42.6 PPG his senior season, leading the nation in scoring. He won back-to-back Gatorade Player of the Year awards.

Young was the 23rd ranked player in the class of 2017, receiving offers from the elites of college basketball, including Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, and many more. Young would decide to stay home and play for the Oklahoma Sooners.

College Career

Young was a star with the Sooners, leading the nation in scoring and assists, the only player to achieve the feat. Averaging 27.4 PPG and 8.7 APG, Young took the nation by storm, showing an ability to drill logo shots and distribute the ball at a high level. He was a finalist for the Wooden Award and a consensus First-Team All-American. The Sooners would make an NCAA Tournament appearance during Young's single-season career, but would fall to Rhode Island in the first round.

Underdog

Through all of the success and dominance throughout the early stages of Young's career, he was still an underdog. While there are a number of reasons that you could point to, I'll boil it down to size and defensive question marks.

Young was listed at around 6'1, 178 lb. at the 2018 Draft Combine, and weighed less than 170 lb. for a good chunk of his high school career. Young was also a significant defensive liability due to his size, as he was oftentimes targeted on that end. It seemed apparent that you were going to get elite scoring and offensive efficiency from Young, but you were sacrificing a significant portion of your on-ball defense in the backcourt.

NBA Draft

In the 2018 NBA Draft, Young was drafted by the Dallas Mavericks with the 5th overall pick before being traded on draft night to the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for Luka Dončić. Setting aside the fact that Luka Dončić would eventually become the all-world player that he is in 2025, the Hawks had taken their franchise guy in Young.

A Slow Start

Young was a stat-sheet stuffer during his rookie season, averaging 19.1 PPG and 8.1 APG and finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting behind, you guessed it, Luka Dončić. However, his efficiency left a lot to be desired from what many expected, shooting just under 42% from the field and roughly 32% from three. The Hawks were also putrid during Young's rookie season, finishing the season 29-53. Young's numbers would improve drastically the following season, averaging 29.6 PPG and 9.3 APG with improved efficiency and making an appearance in his first All-Star Game. However, the Hawks continued to struggle, finishing 20-47 in the shortened 2019-2020 season.

Ice Trae and the 2020-2021 Hawks

The beginning of the 2020-2021 season seemed to be the same tale for Atlanta, getting off to a rough 14-20 start before firing head coach Lloyd Pierce. In stepped Nate McMillan. Atlanta would finish the regular season 27-11 under McMillan, finishing 41-31 in another shortened season. The Hawks entered the postseason as the 5 seed in the Eastern Conference, taking on the New York Knicks in round one.

The series got off to a hot start, with Atlanta taking Game 1 107-105 at MSG. Trae Young would cement himself as a villain in the realm of New York sports, trolling the crowd throughout and after the game. The Hawks would then drop Game 2 before taking the next 3 games and winning the series 4-1. Young averaged nearly 30 PPG in the series, and famously ended the series with a bow to the MSG crowd. To get a better idea of Knicks fans' opinions on Trae Young, I'll leave that to social media (insert Sidetalk NYC clip).

The run wouldn't stop there, as the Hawks would stun the 1-seeded Philadelphia 76ers in seven games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in franchise history. Young would continue to impress, but Atlanta would also see great production from guys like John Collins and Danilo Gallinari, as well as the unsung hero in Game 7, Kevin Huerter.

The Milwaukee Bucks stood in Atlanta's way in the ECF, coming off a win in a thrilling 7-game dogfight with the Brooklyn Nets, thanks to Kevin Durant's abnormally large foot. The Hawks would start off on the right foot, taking Game 1 in a nail biter before dropping the next two games. Young would miss two games in the series, with Atlanta going 1-1 without him. Lou Williams stepped in and provided Atlanta with much needed production in Game 4, knotting the series up at 2 games a piece. However, the eventual NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks would be too much for Atlanta, winning the series in six games.

Same Ol' Hawks

With the hangover of 2021 lingering, the Hawks would land right back into mediocrity. Atlanta would go 43-39 the following season and get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs by the Miami Heat. For Trae Young, he made his first All-NBA appearance, landing on All-NBA Third Team as well as making an appearance in his second All-Star Game.

Atlanta needed reinforcements heading into the 2022-2023 season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In the summer of 2022, Atlanta would land one of the better perimeter defenders in the league in Dejounte Murray. Murray came with a hefty price, as Atlanta sent Danilo Gallinari, three first-round picks in 2023, 2025 and 2027, as well as a pick swap in 2026. In the two-years of the Young-Murray backcourt, Atlanta would not win a playoff series, going 41-41 in the 2022-2023 season. After firing Nate McMillan and hiring Quin Snyder in 2023, the Hawks would go 36-46 the following year. With Murray and Young both known to be primary ball handlers, the two just simply did not mesh.

The Hawks were busy in the 2024 offseason, eventually trading Murray to the Pelicans for Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., E.J. Liddell, Cody Zeller and two first round picks. Atlanta would also land the first overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, which many argued was the most inopportune time to land the first pick with a weaker 2024 draft class. Atlanta would use that pick to take French forward Zaccharie Risacher.

The Hawks would go 40-42 in the 2024-2025 season, marking yet another mediocre season. However, there were a few brights spots. Dyson Daniels cemented himself as one of the more dominant perimeter defenders in the league, while also winning the award for Most Improved Player. Atlanta also saw solid production out of Zaccharie Risacher, as he finished second in Rookie of the Year running. While his production was not off the charts for a #1 pick, Risacher proved that he was a formidable NBA player, providing some comfort for Hawks fans heading into year 2. Jalen Johnson had also proven himself as a force to be reckoned with, posting career highs in nearly every statistical category and showing that he can be a feasible #2 option.

As for Trae Young, his production was much of the same, having one of the highest usage rates in the league while being a consistent 20+ PPG scorer. However, with his defense already a question mark, Young's defensive rating would steadily drop off even more since his rise to stardom in 2021. Teams continued to target him, leading to many wasted defensive possessions.

With the exception of the deep playoff run in 2021, the Hawks have been in every NBA Play-In Tournament since its introduction. With the lack of significant success in the previous three seasons, Atlanta needed to make more changes heading into 2025.

2025 Offseason

The Hawks would add some key pieces in the 2025 offseason, trading for Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and signing Luke Kennard. The front office would not stop there, as Atlanta made one of the more impactful trades of the offseason on draft night, trading down and acquiring an unprotected pick in 2026 from the New Orleans Pelicans, who sit at 8-22 as I write this. The Pelicans acquired Derik Queen with the 13th overall pick, while Atlanta would snag Asa Newell with the 23rd pick. New Orleans was highly scrutinized for the trade, which could potentially come back to bite them in the future, depending on where the 2026 pick lands. It is worth mentioning, however, that Derik Queen has performed like one of the top rookies in the league so far in 2025.

Where are we now?

I want to invite everyone to a quick exercise. Before reading the next sentence, through 30 games, does anyone have a guess for the Atlanta Hawks current record as I write this on Dec. 22? 15-15. They just can't escape.

Trae Young has missed 22 of Atlanta's 30 games this season after sustaining a sprained MCL on Oct. 29. In the games that he has missed, the Hawks are 13-10. With Young on the court, Atlanta is 2-5. Coupled with the mediocrity from the previous three seasons and the lack of success with Young on the court in 2025, I'm unsure that the Hawks can make it work with Trae Young, and may be better off sending him to another team and acquiring a significant amount of assets. Atlanta has several talented young pieces to work around, including Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, and others who are more up-in-the-air up to this point, why not retool and build around the young core?

Trade Ideas

I have come up with a couple of trade ideas centered around Trae Young that I believe would benefit both teams, as well as Trae Young himself.

Toronto Raptors

Raptors receive: Trae Young

Hawks receive: Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, Ja'Kobe Walter, 2026 first-round pick (lottery protected), 2028 unprotected first round pick, 2030 unprotected first-round pick, 2032 unprotected first-round pick

Toronto would be adding elite scoring in the backcourt, which they have needed for quite some time now. Adding Trae Young to a lineup including Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram could take the Raptors from a middling team in the Eastern Conference to a legitimate force. The Raptors currently sit at 17-13, and are top 10 in defensive rating this year, leaving some room for error with Young on the defensive end.

For Atlanta, you add a consistent guard in Quickley who also struggles defensively, but may limit the hero shots that Young often takes. Gradey Dick and Ja'Kobe Walter bring youth, potential and shooting from behind the arc. Walter has been wishy washy to begin his career, but could thrive in a new role with Atlanta. Dick has struggled to begin the 2025-2026 season, but showed flashes of promise during his rookie season.

With the success rate in the 23 games this season without Trae Young, adding these pieces while also adding significant draft capital can send Atlanta in a good direction. He has a $48.9M player option in 2027, which you would have to imagine he accepts. He will be an unrestricted free agent in 2028.

Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks receive: Trae Young, Zaccharie Risacher, Mouhamed Gueye, 2026 first round pick (swap worst with SA, CLE, MIN and UTA), 2029 unprotected first-round pick, 2030 first round pick swap, 2031 unprotected first round pick

Hawks receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mark Sears

This was an ambitious one, but why not have some fun. With the rumors surrounding a potential split between Giannis and the Bucks, Atlanta would be an incredible destination. Dyson Daniels would likely shift to being the primary ball handler on offense, with Giannis, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis making up an elite front court trio. Atlanta loses their former #1 pick in Zaccharie Risacher, as well as a large haul of first rounds picks, but this is Giannis Antetokounmpo we're talking about. This trade simultaneously builds a promising future for Milwaukee while also immediately swinging Atlanta into championship contention.